02/20/2008

News / Castro Will Limit Brother's Changes to Cuban Economy, Politics

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Fidel Castro hasn't been declared dead yet, in reality or spirit.

He probably will limit what his brother Raul and other Cuban leaders do to alter policies he implemented almost a half- century ago, even after stepping down as president this month.

``As long as Fidel is alive, there won't be fundamental change in Cuba,'' former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Otto Reich said in a telephone interview from London.

The resignation of the world's longest-serving president is part of a well-planned handoff aimed at preserving the character of his 1959 revolution while avoiding a power struggle and rapid political change, said Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute in Washington.

Castro, 81, began transferring day-to-day control to his 76-year-old brother in July 2006, when he underwent intestinal surgery. Since then, he has maintained his influence by using commentaries in the state media to forestall Raul's bid to promote development of ethanol and allow more private enterprise. And yesterday's announcement didn't mention his role as secretary general of Cuba's Communist Party, a post that would sustain his clout if he keeps it.

``Even when we have seen signs by Raul of wanting to move toward an economic opening, nobody in the bureaucracy acted,'' Vargas Llosa said. ``Everybody is paralyzed.''

Economic Growth

Under Raul, who has been in charge of the military and police since his brother took power, the government will face ``raised expectations'' as Cubans demand more food, powdered milk and Internet access, said Jorge Pinon, a researcher at the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. Annual economic growth of as much as 6 percent for the past three years hasn't overcome widespread poverty or discontent over travel restrictions and the island's two-tiered system for consumers, depending on whether they have foreign currency, Pinon said.

Cuba's next president will be formally announced on Feb. 24, when the 614-member national assembly selects the ruling Council of State. The all-communist assembly was chosen in uncontested elections Jan. 20.

The transfer of power also is unlikely to improve relations with the U.S., where anti-Castro voters are a significant constituency in Florida. Presidential candidates Barack Obama, John McCain and Hillary Clinton yesterday called on Cuba to release political prisoners and take steps toward democracy.

Revolution

President George W. Bush, in a news conference yesterday in Kigali, Rwanda, signaled that the 46-year-old U.S. trade embargo, and restrictions on travel he tightened in 2004, will remain in place unless broad political change occurs.

The Castro brothers have fought together since 1953, when they led a failed attack on Cuba's Moncada army barracks. After being released from jail as part of a general amnesty, they joined Argentine revolutionary Ernesto ``Che'' Guevara in Mexico, and in 1956 crossed the Caribbean in a boat with 80 fighters to start a guerrilla war against dictator Fulgencio Batista. Batista's forces killed all but a dozen of them.

The Castros fled to the Sierra Maestra mountains and rallied enough support to force Batista from power on New Year's Day in 1959.

Raul has shown little ability to change his brother's policies in the 19 months since he took power, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega said in a phone interview.

Regime Change

``Raul has proven incapable of bringing change,'' Noriega said. ``This is clearly the beginning of the end of the regime, but the regime is still very much in place.''

Freedom House, a Washington-based organization that promotes human rights, says Cuba's record of infringing on civil liberties hasn't changed either. Deputy Director Daniel Calingaert ranked Cuba's human rights record alongside Sudan and Uzbekistan, among the world's worst.

Since Castro ceded absolute control in 2006, signs have grown that Cubans are ready for change. Earlier this month a video on the Internet showed students asking critical questions of Ricardo Alarcon, head of the national assembly, on a range of government policies. Last year three military recruits took control of a bus and rode to the Havana airport in an attempt to take over a Boeing 737, which activists saw as a sign of growing discontent.

Charisma

Raul never displayed the rhetorical flare or charisma of his older brother, who regularly gave six-hour speeches and drove through the streets of Havana in an open-air jeep smoking a cigar. When Fidel was dealing with an economic crisis caused by the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba's main supporter, Raul focused on managing the military.

Castro recovered from the Soviet Union's demise and inspired a new generation of Latin American leaders, including Venezuela's socialist President Hugo Chavez, who sees himself as Castro's heir.

Chavez sends about 90,000 barrels of oil a day to Cuba in exchange for the services of thousands of Cuban doctors who provide health-care to poor Venezuelans. The University of Miami has estimated that Chavez provides Cuba with $2.6 billion worth of oil a year.

Cuba and Venezuela also began operating a refinery in Cuba in December.

``Fidel isn't resigning nor is he abandoning anything,'' Chavez said last night on state television. ``Men like Fidel don't give up.''

By Bill Faries

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aBc2e4w.v2SQ&refer=latin_america

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