November 28, 06

NEWS / To Meet or Not to Meet. Putin is the only reason for Saakashvili to go to Minsk

A CIS summit opens in Minsk on Tuesday. Some 20 issues are on the agenda but real debates will reportedly focus on details of a reform in the CIS and a possible meeting of Russian and Georgian leaders.
The Wrong Anniversary

This summit takes place in a year that marks the 15th anniversary of the CIS. However, there will be no celebrations or drawing conclusions on the CIS??™s past activities. Everyone realizes that the CIS as it is now is not effective and, therefore, should be reformed. The issue of direction and pace of the reform divides CIS leaders. Disagreements have been so deep that the summit was put off for more than a month.

The discussion of a report on how to make the Commonwealth more effective is expected to dominate the agenda. The paper was drawn up last year by a high-placed task force. A source in the Kremlin told the press Monday that ???the report has taken into account suggestions from different CIS states, including Kazakh initiatives which were voiced at the July summit in Moscow???. The source mentioned that ???it concerns modernization of the CIS and its institutions, adapting them to the new world in a pragmatic and balanced approach which brings together long-felt reforms and positive experience of the last 15 years.???

A Kommersant source involved in run-up to the summit notes that this issue is expected to be heatedly debated in Minsk. A number of countries are contending to play the role of the chief reformer, and Kazakhstan has been the most active one so far. President Nursultan Nazarbaev, who is currently presiding over the Council of CIS leaders, came up with his set of reforms this summer. The Kazakh president believes the CIS should not try to cover all issues but should focus on several aspects of cooperation. There is more to it, Kazakhstan says only those countries that are willing to observe all adopted decisions could stay in the CIS. Belarus??™ head Alexander Lukashenko has presented his plan for revamping the CIS home as well.

Moscow is not at all happy about enthusiasm of its partners. Well-informed sources of Kommersant report that Russia would like to avoid drastic measures in reforming the CIS, afraid that they would inevitably cause new splits in the Commonwealth which Moscow values and considers as a largely geopolitical institution. Therefore Vladimir Putin will try to convince his counterparts in Minsk that revamping of current bodies and institutions of the CIS is fatal. He will also try to highlight a need to speed up the drafting of a concept for the further development of the Commonwealth. Moscow believes that this job could be started next spring or summer.

Speaking at a meeting of CIS foreign ministers, Kazakhstan??™s foreign policy chief Kasymzhomart Tokaev has suggested setting up an inter-state group of CIS deputy foreign ministers which would be engaged in designing a draft concept for reforming the organization and program for its application. The Kazakhs suggest that the task force be formed before June 1, which is largely in line with Moscow??™s plans.

That means Russia??™s Foreign Minister has reached an agreement with his Kazakh counterpart on the CIS reform, making it easier for Vladimir Putin to sustain Astana??™s ???reform burst???. Still, Moscow will have to hear some criticism of the report today. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk lambasted the document on Monday, saying that it contains the concept of the CIS joint frontier which Kyiv views as unacceptable. The document does not contain any economic matters that Ukraine would like to see there, Tarasyuk noted. ???If the CIS will lose such important factors as economic cooperation ??“ and things are heading in this direction ??“ the Commonwealth itself will lose sense,??? Tarasyuk said, expressing Kyiv??™s stance.

A Just-in-Case Meeting

A possible personal meeting between Russian and Georgian presidents, Vladimir Putin and Mikhail Saakashvili may become another highlight of Minsk meeting. The Georgian Foreign Ministry confirmed to Kommersant on Monday that President Saakashvili has sent a request for a meeting to his Russian counterpart, but there have not been a reply yet. Meanwhile, a source in the Georgian president??™s administration told Kommersant: ???Mikhail Saakashvili is going to Minsk anyway. In case he meets President Putin, Georgia will suggest that Russia takes a real and active part in settling conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Should Russia have a positive reaction, Georgia??™s agreement to Russia??™s membership in the WTO will be a decided matter.???

Kommersant sources in Moscow say materials for talks with Mikhail Saakashvili have been prepared ??“ just in case. But it will be up to Vladimir Putin to decide whether to hold a Russian-Georgian summit or not. It seems that Moscow has been sure up to the last moment that the Russian president should not meet the Georgian leader in the foreseeable future. Moscow claims that it is not to blame for strained bilateral relations, so Georgia ought to show willingness to make up with Russia.

There are other reasons for the Kremlin to be biding its time with answering to Tbilisi??™s offer. Moscow is convinced that Russia??™s intense pressure has worked well with the Georgian leader who, as the Kremlin thinks, is starting to realize the negative effect from confrontation with its northern neighbor. The stance of the West has also played its role as Europe and the United States are in no hurry to make up for Tbilisi??™s losses from Russian sanctions. Instead, they advise Georgia??™s leaders to give up its stirring anti-Russian speeches and make up with Moscow.

In this situation, Vladimir Putin may agree to a full meeting with Mikhail Saakashvili, if only to gain trade-offs from Tbilisi on the issues where Russia has its vested interests. And there are lots of them.

First and foremost, Moscow wants to secure real guarantees from Georgia that it will not employ military force to solve conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In addition, Russia wants Tbilisi to abandon attempts to review the current mandate for peace-keepers in Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian conflict zones where Russian forces play the key role. Finally, Moscow still insists that Georgia can have rebate prices on Russian fuel only if it hands over pipe-lines running on its territory to Russia.

One can hardly imagine Mikhail Saakashvili with his current views agreeing to these demands of Moscow. It means even if the meeting with Vladimir Putin takes place, it will hardly make a breakthrough in Russian-Georgian relations. Quite on the contrary, it may have the reverse effect.

Gennady Sysoev from Moscow and Vladimir Novikov from Tbilisi

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